Many Scientists Are Skeptical of the Extreme Warming Predicted by Next-Generation Climate Models
By Michael Bastasch Published on April 22, 2019
https://stream.org/many-scientists-s...limate-models/
Early runs of some next-generation climate models to be included in the next United Nations report predict way more warming than their predecessors.
While modelers are trying to understand exactly why this happened, many scientists are skeptical there's enough estimates to justify the new warmed-up models.
"These new climate model runs are basically gifts to skeptics, since they clearly reduce the credibility of the climate models for attributions of recent warming and also for 21st century projections," climate scientist Judith Curry told
The Daily Caller News Foundation.
So far, at least eight of the 15 models have extremely high estimates of climate sensitivity. Climate sensitivity refers to the long-term warming from a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere.
Climate sensitivity is a hotly debated topic, but nailing down a central estimate is crucial for U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments that try to forecast long-term climate warming.
A higher climate sensitivity measure will yield more alarming results, but not all scientists are convinced there's enough evidence for high climate sensitivity estimates....