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Thread: Normal people vs conspiracy theorists

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    Frozen Chosen A.J.'s Avatar
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    Normal people vs conspiracy theorists





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  3. #2
    Under normal, non-virus circumstances, you'd be absolutely right: the sensible thing to do would be to enjoy Thanksgiving like normal and not wear masks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MercyandFaith View Post
    Under normal, non-virus circumstances, you'd be absolutely right: the sensible thing to do would be to enjoy Thanksgiving like normal and not wear masks.
    Do you realize that the actual total of deaths has not risen during this so-called "pandemic?"

    The sensible thing to do is forget that we've been under torturous fear mongering by politicians and the MSM and just get on with life.

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    Senior Member Colonel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by A.J. View Post
    Do you realize that the actual total of deaths has not risen during this so-called "pandemic?"

    The sensible thing to do is forget that we've been under torturous fear mongering by politicians and the MSM and just get on with life.
    In Equador and Peru, before they did anything about things, the general death toll was doubled, and more than that in areas. They didn't check for covid as a cause of death at that time so it doesn't show up in the covid statistics. Things got better when they started with various restrictions. The restrictions have the effect that they lower the death rate of other diseases like the flu, so the total might become as low as it usually is. In most covid-stricken areas of the world this is not the case, statistics show that the overall death rate since march 2020 is substantially higher than normal.

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  9. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by A.J. View Post
    Do you realize that the actual total of deaths has not risen during this so-called "pandemic?"

    The sensible thing to do is forget that we've been under torturous fear mongering by politicians and the MSM and just get on with life.
    Good morning AJ!! Regarding the statement that "the actual total of deaths has not risen", I have read studies that have come to the opposite conclusion. Here are two:


    Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and Race and Ethnicity — United States, January 26–October 3, 2020 | MMWR

    As of October 15, 216,025 deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported in the United States*; however, this number might underestimate the total impact of the pandemic on mortality. Measures of excess deaths have been used to estimate the impact of public health pandemics or disasters, particularly when there are questions about underascertainment of deaths directly attributable to a given event or cause (1–6).† Excess deaths are defined as the number of persons who have died from all causes, in excess of the expected number of deaths for a given place and time. This report describes trends and demographic patterns in excess deaths during January 26–October 3, 2020. Expected numbers of deaths were estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression models with spline terms to account for seasonal patterns, using provisional mortality data from CDC's National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) (7). Weekly numbers of deaths by age group and race/ethnicity were assessed to examine the difference between the weekly number of deaths occurring in 2020 and the average number occurring in the same week during 2015–2019 and the percentage change in 2020. Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths have occurred in the United States from late January through October 3, 2020, with two thirds of these attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) persons. These results provide information about the degree to which COVID-19 deaths might be underascertained and inform efforts to prevent mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, such as efforts to minimize disruptions to health care.

    Estimates of excess deaths can provide a comprehensive account of mortality related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributable to COVID-19. Estimates of the numbers of deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 might be limited by factors such as the availability and use of diagnostic testing (including postmortem testing) and the accurate and complete reporting of cause of death information on the death certificate. Excess death analyses are not subject to these limitations because they examine historical trends in all-cause mortality to determine the degree to which observed numbers of deaths differ from historical norms. In April 2020, CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) began publishing data on excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic (7,8). This report describes trends and demographic patterns in the number of excess deaths occurring in the United States from January 26, 2020, through October 3, 2020, and differences by age and race/ethnicity using provisional mortality data from the NVSS.§

    Excess deaths are typically defined as the number of persons who have died from all causes, in excess of the expected number of deaths for a given place and time. A detailed description of the methodology for estimating excess deaths has been described previously (7). Briefly, expected numbers of deaths are estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression models with spline terms to account for seasonal patterns. The average expected number, as well as the upper bound of the 95% prediction interval (the range of values likely to contain the value of a single new observation), are used as thresholds to determine the number of excess deaths (i.e., observed numbers above each threshold) and percentage excess (excess deaths divided by average expected number of deaths). Estimates described here refer to the number or percentage above the average; estimates above the upper bound threshold have been published elsewhere (7). Observed numbers of deaths are weighted to account for incomplete reporting by jurisdictions (50 states and the District of Columbia [DC]) in the most recent weeks, where the weights were estimated based on completeness of provisional data in the past year (7).



    Excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) - Our World in Data

    Excess mortality is a term used in epidemiology and public health that refers to the number of deaths from all causes during a crisis above and beyond what we would have expected to see under 'normal' conditions.1 In this case, we're interested in how deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic compare to the average number of deaths over the same period in previous years.

    Excess mortality is a more comprehensive measure of the total impact of the pandemic on deaths than the confirmed COVID-19 death count alone. In addition to confirmed deaths, excess mortality captures COVID-19 deaths that were not correctly diagnosed and reported2 as well as deaths from other causes that are attributable to the overall crisis conditions.3

    ...

    Besides visualizing excess mortality as a percentage difference, we can also look at the raw death counts as shown here in this chart. The raw death counts help give us a rough sense of scale: for example, the US suffered some 275,000 more deaths than the five-year average between 1 March and 16 August, compared to 169,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths during that period.

    However, this measure is less comparable across countries due to large differences in populations. You can still see the death counts for other countries by clicking "Change country" on the chart.

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    Senior Member Pentecali's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by njtom View Post
    Good morning AJ!! Regarding the statement that "the actual total of deaths has not risen", I have read studies that have come to the opposite conclusion. Here are two:


    Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and Race and Ethnicity — United States, January 26–October 3, 2020 | MMWR

    As of October 15, 216,025 deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported in the United States*; however, this number might underestimate the total impact of the pandemic on mortality. Measures of excess deaths have been used to estimate the impact of public health pandemics or disasters, particularly when there are questions about underascertainment of deaths directly attributable to a given event or cause (1–6).† Excess deaths are defined as the number of persons who have died from all causes, in excess of the expected number of deaths for a given place and time. This report describes trends and demographic patterns in excess deaths during January 26–October 3, 2020. Expected numbers of deaths were estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression models with spline terms to account for seasonal patterns, using provisional mortality data from CDC's National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) (7). Weekly numbers of deaths by age group and race/ethnicity were assessed to examine the difference between the weekly number of deaths occurring in 2020 and the average number occurring in the same week during 2015–2019 and the percentage change in 2020. Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths have occurred in the United States from late January through October 3, 2020, with two thirds of these attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) persons. These results provide information about the degree to which COVID-19 deaths might be underascertained and inform efforts to prevent mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, such as efforts to minimize disruptions to health care.

    Estimates of excess deaths can provide a comprehensive account of mortality related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributable to COVID-19. Estimates of the numbers of deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 might be limited by factors such as the availability and use of diagnostic testing (including postmortem testing) and the accurate and complete reporting of cause of death information on the death certificate. Excess death analyses are not subject to these limitations because they examine historical trends in all-cause mortality to determine the degree to which observed numbers of deaths differ from historical norms. In April 2020, CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) began publishing data on excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic (7,8). This report describes trends and demographic patterns in the number of excess deaths occurring in the United States from January 26, 2020, through October 3, 2020, and differences by age and race/ethnicity using provisional mortality data from the NVSS.§

    Excess deaths are typically defined as the number of persons who have died from all causes, in excess of the expected number of deaths for a given place and time. A detailed description of the methodology for estimating excess deaths has been described previously (7). Briefly, expected numbers of deaths are estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression models with spline terms to account for seasonal patterns. The average expected number, as well as the upper bound of the 95% prediction interval (the range of values likely to contain the value of a single new observation), are used as thresholds to determine the number of excess deaths (i.e., observed numbers above each threshold) and percentage excess (excess deaths divided by average expected number of deaths). Estimates described here refer to the number or percentage above the average; estimates above the upper bound threshold have been published elsewhere (7). Observed numbers of deaths are weighted to account for incomplete reporting by jurisdictions (50 states and the District of Columbia [DC]) in the most recent weeks, where the weights were estimated based on completeness of provisional data in the past year (7).



    Excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) - Our World in Data

    Excess mortality is a term used in epidemiology and public health that refers to the number of deaths from all causes during a crisis above and beyond what we would have expected to see under 'normal' conditions.1 In this case, we're interested in how deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic compare to the average number of deaths over the same period in previous years.

    Excess mortality is a more comprehensive measure of the total impact of the pandemic on deaths than the confirmed COVID-19 death count alone. In addition to confirmed deaths, excess mortality captures COVID-19 deaths that were not correctly diagnosed and reported2 as well as deaths from other causes that are attributable to the overall crisis conditions.3

    ...

    Besides visualizing excess mortality as a percentage difference, we can also look at the raw death counts as shown here in this chart. The raw death counts help give us a rough sense of scale: for example, the US suffered some 275,000 more deaths than the five-year average between 1 March and 16 August, compared to 169,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths during that period.

    However, this measure is less comparable across countries due to large differences in populations. You can still see the death counts for other countries by clicking "Change country" on the chart.
    njtom,
    Who is dying from this? Is it mostly normal, healthy people? Or is it primarily the elderly and people with poor health conditions?
    I do believe there's a virus, but I think these extreme lockdowns are not necessary. for instance, how is this impacting kids? why do they need to stay shut in and not allowed to attend school? This is not healthy socially or mentally for kids.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pentecali View Post
    njtom,
    Who is dying from this? Is it mostly normal, healthy people? Or is it primarily the elderly and people with poor health conditions?
    I do believe there's a virus, but I think these extreme lockdowns are not necessary. for instance, how is this impacting kids? why do they need to stay shut in and not allowed to attend school? This is not healthy socially or mentally for kids.
    Pentecali: I haven't weighed in on the lockdowns, as in my mind there clearly are tradeoffs. Too severe; then businesses suffer, individuals become more isolated, and kids don't learn as well. Too weak; then the virus spreads more rapidly and more people die who wouldn't have otherwise. It's a balancing act and I don't know who's right and who's wrong. Some restrictions, I feel, are appropriate; for example I don't think it's a great idea to allow crowded cinemas, concert halls, and Broadway theaters, but we should always compensate the businesses and employees affected by our restrictions.

    As to who is dying from the virus, what I have read indicates (as you stated) that it is more likely the elderly and people with pre-existing health conditions. Others are dying as well, but not as rapidly.

    But the main point of my post was to bring to the attention of the forum studies that show that the virus has caused hundreds of thousands to die who wouldn't have died otherwise. I think that's an important piece of information. Because if there were no increase in deaths, then there wouldn't be a need for any restrictions.

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    So if the Son sets you free, you will be free indeed. John's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by njtom View Post
    Pentecali: I haven't weighed in on the lockdowns, as in my mind there clearly are tradeoffs. Too severe; then businesses suffer, individuals become more isolated, and kids don't learn as well. Too weak; then the virus spreads more rapidly and more people die who wouldn't have otherwise. It's a balancing act and I don't know who's right and who's wrong. Some restrictions, I feel, are appropriate; for example I don't think it's a great idea to allow crowded cinemas, concert halls, and Broadway theaters, but we should always compensate the businesses and employees affected by our restrictions.

    As to who is dying from the virus, what I have read indicates (as you stated) that it is more likely the elderly and people with pre-existing health conditions. Others are dying as well, but not as rapidly.

    But the main point of my post was to bring to the attention of the forum studies that show that the virus has caused hundreds of thousands to die who wouldn't have died otherwise. I think that's an important piece of information. Because if there were no increase in deaths, then there wouldn't be a need for any restrictions.
    We covered the "covid-related" death count here..

    Johns Hopkins Study - Corona Has No effect on Overall Death Rate

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    Frozen Chosen A.J.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by njtom View Post
    Good morning AJ!! Regarding the statement that "the actual total of deaths has not risen", I have read studies that have come to the opposite conclusion....
    Thanks .... I'll just reply with a summary of a MSM news item in picture form. They reported it and then scrubbed it almost immediately. But it was captured. Most of the charts and numbers I've seen do NOT support an increase in overall deaths. Please explain to me how all those frontline workers never got sick in all the months we've been in this so-called pandemic. Seasonal flu numbers just disappeared. This whole thing is NOT about a virus or keeping anyone safe. It's about governmental control and the NWO.

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  18. #10
    Please explain to me how all those frontline workers never got sick in all the months we've been in this so-called pandemic.
    Do you mean doctor and nurses?
    I hope not, because today it is very seldom that you die as a healthcare worker from anything job related. That makes it easy to see, that docs and nurse, even younger and without conditions, have died from Covid-19, as they were caring for infected patients. I remember that in Italy in march even around 20 priests died as they were visiting the sick and dying patients in hospitals.

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