Page 3 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast
Results 21 to 30 of 50

Thread: Korean Summit is On!

  1. #21
    Senior Member Colonel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Location
    Oslo, Norway
    Posts
    14,487
    Thanked: 5793
    Whenever did sanctions work with totalitarian dictators ? As long as Jong-un can keep himself and his elité happy and most of the population alive and working then it probably doesn't matter to him. A failed and unfixable nuclear program does matter to him. I see the summit as a sign that he isn't getting the necessary help with his nuclear program from outsiders including China. So he has switched tracks to a unification narrative and the question is to which degree he will follow up on it. In the past he has gone back on pledges so only time will tell.

  2. The Following User Says Thank You to Colonel For This Useful Post:

    Romans828 (04-30-2018)

  3. #22
    Senior Member Colonel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Location
    Oslo, Norway
    Posts
    14,487
    Thanked: 5793
    A very hypothetical scenario is where Jong-un throws in the towel and lets the world unify Korea again. Where would that leave him personally ? I can't see how he could manage to live comfortably within a unified Korea. He could possibly manage to go into exile and live somewhere on a large bank account along with his closest family and friends.

  4. The Following User Says Thank You to Colonel For This Useful Post:

    Romans828 (04-30-2018)

  5. #23
    So if the Son sets you free, you will be free indeed. John's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Posts
    7,824
    Thanked: 7519
    It hasn't been about Jong-un exclusively, he is painted as a "dictator" but he is really a puppet. He serves others.

  6. #24
    Colonel: Sure, arguably sanctions are the least effective on those who dont give a hoot about them above keeping power. BUT, here, China is well positioned to put some real pain on Kim, which I believe has given him -- a wake up call from his supposed "best friend".

  7. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Colonel View Post
    A very hypothetical scenario is where Jong-un throws in the towel and lets the world unify Korea again. Where would that leave him personally ? I can't see how he could manage to live comfortably within a unified Korea. He could possibly manage to go into exile and live somewhere on a large bank account along with his closest family and friends.
    A little Gorbachev style glasnost and perestroika Communist party defanging...then whoa, Cold War over...and hey, a nice Nobel Peace Prize for Gorby. The bad guy became a good guy with still a good life I think.

    All kinds of radical and unbelievable changes are possible, especially from prayer.

  8. The Following User Says Thank You to Jonathan david For This Useful Post:

    Ezekiel 33 (04-30-2018)

  9. #26
    Senior Member Colonel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Location
    Oslo, Norway
    Posts
    14,487
    Thanked: 5793
    Quote Originally Posted by Jonathan david View Post
    Colonel: Sure, arguably sanctions are the least effective on those who dont give a hoot about them above keeping power. BUT, here, China is well positioned to put some real pain on Kim, which I believe has given him -- a wake up call from his supposed "best friend".
    Hopefully Jong-un would rather have a friendlier but working regime than a totalitarian but dysfunctional regime. He hails from a tradition of trying to make things better by way of Communism. Which makes him a bit different to the archetypical dictator who doesn't care at all what happens as long as he stays in power and can bless himself and his clan. Saddam Hussein and a number of African dictators fit this description. If we go by the history of the Soviet Union it took Stalin's death then almost 40 years before the regime came to an end. They were in a much better position to remain self sufficient though.

  10. #27
    Senior Member Colonel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Location
    Oslo, Norway
    Posts
    14,487
    Thanked: 5793
    Quote Originally Posted by Jonathan david View Post
    A little Gorbachev style glasnost and perestroika Communist party defanging...then whoa, Cold War over...and hey, a nice Nobel Peace Prize for Gorby. The bad guy became a good guy.

    All kinds of radical and unbelievable changes are possible, especially from prayer.
    Gorbachev was a Christian who genuinely wanted to reform the Communist system but it is unclear how far he originally intended to go with that. In interviews later he talks about his faith and he seems happy about how things went. The Kims are more like Stalins in succession. At least Kim Il-Sung was, it is difficult to tell how far his two successors have departed from that standard, if at all. Recall that there was a rejection of and departure from Stalinism and that type of extreme personality cult in the Soviet Union after Stalin's death. China and North Korea were very unhappy about that and decided to continue with that concept. Things changed in China with Mao's death but not in North Korea.

  11. #28
    Senior Member Colonel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Location
    Oslo, Norway
    Posts
    14,487
    Thanked: 5793
    Every time I see Jong-Uns face and his weirdo Mao style haircut I see a relic of the past, a Stalin of 2018. He reminds me of propaganda posters from the days of the cultural revolution in China in the 1960s, all power and Communistic glory. I'm sure he looks even more awful to his intended audience, the North Korean people.

  12. #29
    Senior Member Colonel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Location
    Oslo, Norway
    Posts
    14,487
    Thanked: 5793
    Quote Originally Posted by Jonathan david View Post
    All kinds of radical and unbelievable changes are possible, especially from prayer.
    Millions of South Koreans have prayed, even simultaneously, for the reunification of Korea and that is certainly possible but on what terms ? Some scenarios are far more likely than others. The internal collapse then surrender scenario is a possibility. The problem is that an internal collapse could escalate into total chaos rather than a handover of power to South Korea. If they really do get rid of the nuclear element then things would be a bit easier.

  13. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Colonel For This Useful Post:

    Ezekiel 33 (04-30-2018), Jonathan david (04-28-2018)

  14. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Colonel View Post
    Whenever did sanctions work with totalitarian dictators ? As long as Jong-un can keep himself and his elité happy and most of the population alive and working then it probably doesn't matter to him. A failed and unfixable nuclear program does matter to him. I see the summit as a sign that he isn't getting the necessary help with his nuclear program from outsiders including China. So he has switched tracks to a unification narrative and the question is to which degree he will follow up on it. In the past he has gone back on pledges so only time will tell.
    Interestingly, President Moon does think sanctions could have played a part here:
    "In January, Moon said Trump "deserves big credit for bringing about the inter-Korean talks. It could be a resulting work of the U.S.-led sanctions and pressure".
    Trump's tough talk also was unsettling and caused Kim to re-think, IMO, as Kim began to change his approach shortly after.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
You can avoid expensive repair costs with an extended service plan for your Ford. We have a plan for evry model of Ford, including the Ford Fusion.